Tensions between Russia and Ukraine may lead to a world war. Wars on this scale often take unpredictable directions and are known to cause major damage to major parts of the world. The seldom heard Ukrainian people have a right to self-determination. Just like all other peoples, according to the United Nation's charter and the subsequent treaties. A referendum on the direction Ukraine should take is adequate.
Here are a few complications:
As far as the West is concerned, Russia and China are the same entity. They are close allies joined by a common enemy. During the past 8 years, the busy Russian and Chinese leaders found the time to meet virtually and in-person more than 35 times. What Russia does on its European frontiers cannot be seen as separate from what China does on its Asian frontiers. At the same time that Russia is loudly challenging the West in Europe, China is more quietly challenging the West in Asia. It is the same program.
Furthermore, both countries were complicit in disrupting Western societies and in engaging in cyberwarfare against the West. Their attempts to challenge and disrupt have mostly waned at this time. Due to Western awareness and vigilance, it is now time for Plan B --direct cold war style confrontation. Since Russia is more capable militarily and politically, and because of the semi-convincing argument that NATO is reneging on 20th century guarantees not to get too close to Russia's borders, it is leading the way. Any success on this front will undoubtedly lead to a similar result on the Asian front.
Militarization is Russia's strength. Economically and politically, Russia is only a regional power with impressive natural resources that is 12 time zones wide. Europe's military preparation is through NATO. Pushing Europe to militarize and to form joint armed forces outside of NATO will result in disruption to its economies, social priorities and the strength of the union. The resulting instability could be the disruption that Russia and China have been seeking all along.
For some time now, Russia has been experiencing strong sales of advanced weapon systems by positioning itself as the anti-West. From nuclear reactors to air defense systems, Russia is the supplier of choice if you are experiencing difficulties with the West. The impressive military build up and show of force on its borders with Ukraine will eventually lead to brisk arms sales.
Since the first writing of this post, there was news of the two former Ukrainian provinces joining the Russian Federation. The world responded mostly with promised sanctions against Russia's leadership. In all likelihood, Russian military maneuvers are now complete.
